Migration, mobility and access to credit. What lies ahead for the rental market in Poland?

Demographic changes are having an increasingly clear impact on the structure of demand in the housing market, and one of the segments responding most rapidly to these trends is the rental market.

As the National Bank of Poland indicates in its regular reports on the residential and commercial property markets, the rental sector is currently undergoing a phase of dynamic growth. Estimated market revenue in 2025 reached nearly USD 18 billion, and the projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2025–2029 is approximately 4.04%.

The growing popularity of renting is primarily driven by lasting social changes – a lower number of marriages, postponing the decision to start a family, increasing job mobility, limited availability of mortgage loans, and a growing reluctance to commit to a single place of residence for the long term.

Migration, both internal and international, also plays a significant role. As analyses by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) highlight, renting is gradually taking on a market-stabilising role, reducing vacancy rates and increasing the flexibility of supply.

In turn, data published by the Central Statistical Office show that internal migration will particularly affect cities such as Łódź, Opole, Kielce, Lublin, Białystok and Olsztyn.

Looking ahead to the coming years, this may mean that some local markets will enter a phase of stagnation, with the gap between the largest conurbations and medium-sized towns continuing to widen.

At the same time, an increase in the supply of rental flats is being observed in large urban centres, which is gradually easing the pressure on rent increases. As a result, rental rates may stabilise in the coming quarters, and the pace of their growth is likely to slow significantly.

Will the Polish housing market become more diverse over the next few to several years, both in terms of housing models and regional demand conditions?

We will discuss the long-term effects of demographic changes on the rental market in greater detail during
the 2026 Polish Real Estate Forum, which will take place on 11–12 June 2026 at the Sheraton Sopot Hotel.