An ageing population and the future of the housing market in Poland

Forecasts published by the Central Statistical Office indicate that Poland is entering a period of profound and long-term demographic change. Between 2023 and 2060, the population is set to decline steadily, from the current figure of around 37 million to 36.6 million in 2030 and 35.3 million in 2040. With the fertility rate remaining very low, the country’s population could shrink to as few as around 28 million by the end of the 21st century.

At the same time, the population is ageing rapidly. By 2030, people aged 65 and over will account for over 22% of the population, and by 2060, around 30% of the country’s inhabitants.

For the property market, this signifies a significant shift in the structure of demand. Older people are becoming one of the key groups of buyers of flats and houses, and their expectations differ significantly from the needs of younger households.

In many locations, new developments will have to take the needs of this group into account more and more clearly, both in the design of individual buildings and entire estates. The most frequently cited features of flats attractive to senior citizens include, amongst others:

• proximity to medical facilities, pharmacies and essential services,
• low-rise buildings or access to a lift,
• smaller floor areas making it easier to maintain the property,
• solutions facilitating daily living – no thresholds, wide doorways, the option to install handrails or ramps.

The growing demand for supported housing and estates offering care services is becoming one of the clear trends in the market.

The changing demographic structure will also have a direct impact on the rental market and property investment models in Poland. We will return to this topic in our next article.